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Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models
Mok, K. M.; Yuen, K. V.; Hoi, K. I.; Chao, K. M.; Lopes, D.
2018-05
Source PublicationStochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
ISSN1436-3240
Volume32Issue:5Pages:1283-1297
Abstract

While seasonal time-varying models should generally be used to predict the daily concentration of ground-level ozone given its strong seasonal cycles, the sudden switching of models according to their designated period in an annual operational forecasting system may affect their performance, especially during the season's transitional period in which the starting date and duration time can vary from year to year. This paper studies the effectiveness of an adaptive Bayesian Model Averaging scheme with the support of a transitional prediction model in solving the problem. The scheme continuously evaluates the probabilities of all the ozone prediction models (ozone season, nonozone season, and the transitional period) in a forecasting system, which are then used to provide a weighted average forecast. The scheme has been adopted in predicting the daily maximum of 8-h averaged ozone concentration in Macau for a period of 2 years (2008 and 2009), with results proved to be satisfactory.

KeywordAdaptive Bayesian Model Averaging Kalman Filter Model Switching Ozone Prediction Statistical Model
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1473-1
URLView the original
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:000429464900006
PublisherSPRINGER
The Source to ArticleWOS
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Cited Times [WOS]:3   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Corresponding AuthorHoi, K. I.
AffiliationDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macau SAR, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Mok, K. M.,Yuen, K. V.,Hoi, K. I.,et al. Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2018,32(5):1283-1297.
APA Mok, K. M.,Yuen, K. V.,Hoi, K. I.,Chao, K. M.,&Lopes, D..(2018).Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,32(5),1283-1297.
MLA Mok, K. M.,et al."Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models".Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 32.5(2018):1283-1297.
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