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An ARMAX model for forecasting the power output of a grid connected photovoltaic system
Li Y.1; Su Y.2; Shu L.3
2014
Source PublicationRenewable Energy
ISSN9601481
Volume66Pages:78
Abstract

Power forecasting has received a great deal of attention due to its importance for planning the operations of photovoltaic (PV) system. Compared to other forecasting techniques, the ARIMA time series model does not require the meteorological forecast of solar irradiance that is often complicated. Due to its simplicity, the ARIMA model has been widely discussed as a statistical model for forecasting power output from a PV system. However, the ARIMA model is a data-driven model that cannot take the climatic information into account. Intuitively, such information is valuable for improving the forecast accuracy. Motivated by this, this paper suggests a generalized model, the ARMAX model, to allow for exogenous inputs for forecasting power output. The suggested model takes temperature, precipitation amount, insolation duration, and humidity that can be easily accessed from the local observatory as exogenous inputs. As the ARMAX model does not rely forecast on solar irradiance, it maintains simplicity as the conventional ARIMA model. On the other hand, it is more general and flexible for practical use than the ARIMA model. It is shown that the ARMAX model greatly improves the forecast accuracy of power output over the ARIMA model. The results were validated based on a grid-connected 2.1kW PV system. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

KeywordEfficiency Grid Connection Photovoltaic System Solar Irradiance
DOI10.1016/j.renene.2013.11.067
URLView the original
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS SubjectGreen & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Energy & Fuels
WOS IDWOS:000333073700010
The Source to ArticleScopus
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被引频次[WOS]:73   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
Document TypeJournal article
专题DEPARTMENT OF ELECTROMECHANICAL ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Corresponding AuthorShu L.
Affiliation1.Department of Industrial Engineering and Logistics Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
2.Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Macau, Macau, PR China
3.Faculty of Business, University of Macau, Macau, PR China
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
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GB/T 7714
Li Y.,Su Y.,Shu L.. An ARMAX model for forecasting the power output of a grid connected photovoltaic system[J]. Renewable Energy,2014,66:78.
APA Li Y.,Su Y.,&Shu L..(2014).An ARMAX model for forecasting the power output of a grid connected photovoltaic system.Renewable Energy,66,78.
MLA Li Y.,et al."An ARMAX model for forecasting the power output of a grid connected photovoltaic system".Renewable Energy 66(2014):78.
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