UM
Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty
Tam, Pui Sun
2018
Conference NameAPPLIED ECONOMICS
Volume50
Issue34-35
Pages3718-3734
Publication Place2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND
PublisherROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
AbstractThis article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China's accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China's policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth.
KeywordEconomic policy uncertainty global vector autoregression trade value-added
DOI10.1080/00036846.2018.1436151
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI ; ISSHP
Language英语
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000433012800007
The Source to ArticleWOS
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Cited Times [WOS]:4   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionUniversity of Macau
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Tam, Pui Sun. Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty[C]. 2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND:ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD,2018:3718-3734.
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