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Momentum and House Price Growth in the U.S.: Anatomy of a “Bubble”
Rose N. Lai1; Robert A. Van Order2,3
2010-10-05
Source PublicationREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS
ISSN1540-6229
Volume38Issue:4Pages:53–773
Abstract

This article analyzes the bubble in property values across cities in the United States from 1999 through 2005. We find evidence of momentum in house price growth (relative to growth in rents) away from the underlying fundamentals throughout the 1980–2005 period; however, momentum increased after 1999. We find that the bubble happened mostly after 2003; it was for a relatively short period and was characterized by a series of positive, seemingly random, shocks that were associated with the surge in the subprime market and the decline in short‐term interest rates. Before that price changes were reasonably well explained by the fundamentals, particularly the decline in long‐term interest rates in the early part of the bubble period. We do not find evidence of a tendency for prices relative to rents to revert to a long‐run trend.

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2010.00282.x
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS
Affiliation1.Department of Finance and Business Economics, University of Macau, Macau, China
2.George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052
3.the University of Aberdeen, Old Aberdeen
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Rose N. Lai,Robert A. Van Order. Momentum and House Price Growth in the U.S.: Anatomy of a “Bubble”[J]. REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS,2010,38(4):53–773.
APA Rose N. Lai,&Robert A. Van Order.(2010).Momentum and House Price Growth in the U.S.: Anatomy of a “Bubble”.REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS,38(4),53–773.
MLA Rose N. Lai,et al."Momentum and House Price Growth in the U.S.: Anatomy of a “Bubble”".REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS 38.4(2010):53–773.
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