Realized skewness at high frequency and link to conditional market premium | |
Zhi Liu1![]() | |
2014-04-26 | |
Conference Name | Asian Finance Association (AsFA) 2013 Conference |
Source Publication | proceedings of Asian Finance Association (AsFA) 2013 Conference |
Conference Date | 15‐17 JULY 2013 |
Conference Place | Nanchang, China |
Abstract | We propose a reliable new measure for realized skewness, which is robust to microstructure noise at an ultra-high frequency level. Asymptotic theory for the new estimator has been derived and simulation studies verify its superior performance. We apply the new estimator to tick data of the S&P 500 index to forecast the equity premium in the U.S. market from 1990 to 2011 and find that it has significant forecastability, both in sample and out-of-sample. We also show that the new skewness measure plus the variance risk premium provides the right decomposition for the skewness risk. We thus provide evidence that the realized skewness is linked to the conditional market premium. |
Keyword | High-frequency Jump Microstructure Noise Realized Skewness Stock Return Prediction |
DOI | http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2224216 |
Language | 英语 |
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Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Conference paper |
Collection | Faculty of Science and Technology DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS |
Affiliation | 1.Department of Mathematics, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China 2.The Wangyanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, China 3.China Financial Futures Exchange, Shanghai, China |
First Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhi Liu,Kent Wang,Junwei Liu. Realized skewness at high frequency and link to conditional market premium[C],2014. |
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