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Development of an adaptive Kalman filter-based storm tide forecasting model
Mok, K. M.; Lai, U. H.; Hoi, K. I.
2016
Conference Name2nd Conference of Global Chinese Scholars on Hydrodynamics (CCSH '2016)
Source PublicationProceedings of the Second Conference of Global Chinese Scholars on Hydrodynamics (CCSH'2016)
Volume1 & 2
Pages176-183
Conference DateNOV 11-14, 2016
Conference PlaceWuxi, PEOPLES R CHINA
PublisherCHINA OCEAN PRESS, FUXINGMENWAI STREET, BEIJING 100860, PEOPLES R CHINA
Abstract

Extreme storm tide usually causes flooding of low-lying land in a coastal city. Hence, developing anefficient and accurate forecasting model for issuing a timely warning is important. In this study, anadaptive Kalman filter-based storm tide forecasting model was proposed and applied to the inner Harbor of Macau. The model is a dynamic linear regression model with the harmonic tidal prediction, wind speed, wind direction and atmospheric pressure as its input parameters. With persistence forecast of weather assumed during the prediction period, the model was tested with 40 cases ofstorm tide induced by tropical cyclones in Macau between 2005 and 2012. Success was found for forecasts with lead times up to 3 hours. The proposed adaptive model is considered a practical tool for storm tide forecast in small coastal cities.

KeywordAdaptive Model Flooding Kalman Filter Macau Storm Tide
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaMechanics ; Physics
WOS SubjectMechanics ; Physics, Applied ; Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
WOS IDWOS:000389297200026
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Document TypeConference paper
专题DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
AffiliationDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau SAR, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
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Mok, K. M.,Lai, U. H.,Hoi, K. I.. Development of an adaptive Kalman filter-based storm tide forecasting model[C]:CHINA OCEAN PRESS, FUXINGMENWAI STREET, BEIJING 100860, PEOPLES R CHINA,2016:176-183.
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