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Typical Day Prediction Model for Output Power and Energy Efficiency of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System
Yan Su; L. C. Chan
2012
Conference NameICEE International Conference on Energy and Environment
Source Publicationthe Proceedings of ICEE International Conference on Energy and Environment
Conference DateMay, 2012
Conference PlaceTokyo, Japan
Abstract

A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models

KeywordGrid Connected Rmsd Solar Pv System Typical Day
Language英语
Fulltext Access
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTROMECHANICAL ENGINEERING
Affiliationthe Department of Electromechanical Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Taipa, Macau, China
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Science and Technology
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yan Su,L. C. Chan. Typical Day Prediction Model for Output Power and Energy Efficiency of a Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic System[C],2012.
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