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A Weighted RMSD Control Model for Holt-Winters Forecasting of Output Power of a Grid Connected Solar Photovoltaic System
Yan Su; Lai-Cheong Chan; Sio-Kei Ng
2013
Conference Name12th International Conference on Sustainable Energy technologies (SET-2013)
Source Publicationthe Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Sustainable Energy technologies
Conference Date26-29th August, 2013
Conference PlaceHong Kong
Abstract

A novel weighted Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) control model based on the equally weighted sum of errors of the maximum, mean, and minimum values in each forecasting time period has been developed and applied with Holt-Winters forecasting method to do days or weekly ahead forecasting of daily averaged solar irradiance, output power, and energy efficiency for grid connected solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The forecasting results based on the present model are compared favorably with the measured data of a grid connected solar PV system in Macau for solar irradiance, output power, and the system energy efficiency. Comparisons of the predicted results based on the present weighted RMSD control model to those from previous absolute error and relative error control models show that present weighted RMSD control model has better stability and higher accuracy.

KeywordGrid Connected Holt-winters Forecasting Rmsd Solar Photovoltaic System
Language英语
Fulltext Access
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTROMECHANICAL ENGINEERING
AffiliationDepartment of Electromechanical Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Taipa, Macau, China
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Science and Technology
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yan Su,Lai-Cheong Chan,Sio-Kei Ng. A Weighted RMSD Control Model for Holt-Winters Forecasting of Output Power of a Grid Connected Solar Photovoltaic System[C],2013.
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