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Hydrostatic-season-time model updating using Bayesian model class selection
Gamse, Sonja; Zhou, Wan-Huan; Tan, Fang; Yuen, Ka-Veng; Oberguggenberger, Michael
2018-01
Source PublicationRELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
ISSN0951-8320
Volume169Pages:40-50
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to present a novel attempt for parametric estimation in the hydrostatic-season-time (HST) model. The empirical FIST-model has been widely used for the analysis of different measurement data types on dams. The significance of individual parameters or their sub-groups for modelling the influence of the water level, air and water temperature, and irreversible deformations due to the ageing of the dam, depends on the structure itself. The process of finding an accurate HST-model for a given data set, which remains robust to outliers, cannot only be demanding but also time consuming. The Bayesian model class selection approach imposes a penalisation against overly complex model candidates and admits a selection of the most plausible HST-model according to the maximum value of model evidence provided by the data or relative plausibility within a set of model class candidates. The potential of Bayes interference and its efficiency in an HST-model are presented on geodetic time series as a result of a permanent monitoring system on a rock-fill embankment dam. The method offers high potential for engineers in the decision making process, whilst the HST-model can be promptly adapted to new information given by new measurements and can enhance the safety and reliability of dams. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KeywordBayesian model class selection Geodetic observations Hydrostatic-season-time model Model class selection Multiple linear regression Rock-fill embankment dam
DOI10.1016/j.ress.2017.07.018
URLView the original
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS SubjectEngineering, Industrial ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS IDWOS:000416187200005
PublisherELSEVIER SCI LTD
The Source to ArticleWOS
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被引频次[WOS]:9   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
Document TypeJournal article
专题University of Macau
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Gamse, Sonja,Zhou, Wan-Huan,Tan, Fang,et al. Hydrostatic-season-time model updating using Bayesian model class selection[J]. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,2018,169:40-50.
APA Gamse, Sonja,Zhou, Wan-Huan,Tan, Fang,Yuen, Ka-Veng,&Oberguggenberger, Michael.(2018).Hydrostatic-season-time model updating using Bayesian model class selection.RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,169,40-50.
MLA Gamse, Sonja,et al."Hydrostatic-season-time model updating using Bayesian model class selection".RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY 169(2018):40-50.
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